Polls: Obama leads by 100

Memento mori:
Barack could lose this election.
Bankrollers of the Repuglican Party have much more at stake, individually, than any particular contributor to Obama.
They still have lots of stops to pull out. Including more Supreme Court litigation if necessary.
Bush has one major item left on his "to do " list: an attack on Iran.
His friends in the oil business apparently think it is imminent.
How is the Obama campaign going to respond to that?

A poll The Swamp won't give you, since it spells trouble for their candidate Obama: the CNN Poll taken this week says that 43% of Democrats still want Clinton as their nominee. The poll has more bad news for Obama, "In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey completed in early June before the New York senator ended her White House bid, 60 percent of Clinton backers polled said they planned on voting for Obama. In the latest poll, that number has dropped to 54 percent.

In early June, 22 percent of Clinton supporters polled said they would not vote at all if Obama were the party's nominee, now close to a third say they will stay home." See http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/04/clinton.poll/
for the details.

If the The Swamp, Obama's Campaign Newsletter, is going to give poll results, they should give all poll results, not just cherry pick the poll results that help their candidate.

A lot can happen in the next few months...We are seeing a decrease in the Obama worship and adoration already appearing...With no experience, too many unseemly associates, no actual plan to end this war or fix the economy Obama will never win the Presidency without a Clinton running on his ticket..Also his religious affiliation and his patriotism and the elitism are a large hinderance.

The media and the pollsters know that the polls are notoriously unreliable as shown in the Hillary-Obama race and the Kerry "victory" for president 4 years ago. But this year, they are particularly so because of the "Wilder effect," the tendency of people to lie to pollsters as to whether they would vote for a black man. No one wants to be labeled a racist, even by a pollster.
So if you want to make a bet based on polls, go pick the ponies instead. The odds are better.

Although the polls are always changing and can change more, it's better to be ahead then then behind. You don't want to be the one who *could* maybe win if you can find a way to close the gap.

If I was McCain, I'd be especially worried about the RealClearPolitics polling average throughout June. From June 1 through June 30, McCain lost six points from his polling support from 45.2% to 40.9%. That's nearly 10% of the people who said they'd vote for him on June 1st changing their minds and going to "undecided" or Obama by the end of the month. Conversely, Obama remained in a 2 point spread throughout the month, averaging 47%.

Polls change and it's not November yet but that kind of hemmorraging of support isn't healthy no matter what time of year it is.

Good grief. The candidates haven't even announced their running mates and the media is tallying electoral votes!

If polls ran true John Kerry would be in his second term, George Bush SR would have retired in 1988 and Al Gore would be writing his books in the Oval Office instead of his home. The liberal media wants to ensure that the self proclaimed savior, Roco-Bama, will save America from the evil empire of the Right Wing Zealots. This inexperienced JFK wanna-be has already been crowned the winner by his followers and is now redecorating the White House and hiring P Ditty for his inauguration party. So why have an election?

Liken to Jesus Christ he walks the earth preaching his gospel and will ascend into the Oval Office on judgment day like Chris Angel on 42nd Street performing his supernatural levitation magic to the masses. We continue to hear the predictions every day. Obama will win 26 states, no wait 40 states, now it’s a clean sweep of the whole 48 contiguous with the other 2 a dead heat. Every time I see this hype I want to vomit. If the Democrats are so sure that he’s the chosen they why campaign any longer. Just sit around and we’ll go to the pools in November and crown this arrogant, obnoxious empty suit our new leader. Just say it…President Obama. NOT… come November he’ll get a lesson in humility like JF Kerry did and the rest who enjoyed a comfortable lead the summer before the people spoke. I predict that this flash in the pan will get defeated by at lead 5 percentage points as Kerry did and the democratic Congress will demand recounts, investigations and promote their conspiracy theories as they do now wasting our tax dollars and doing absolutely nothing about he issues that they were hired to do when the voters replaced the republican Congress with this bunch of losers.

The fact that Obama is black and that most uneducated whites are racist is a blessing to big oil and "reconstruction" companies like Halliburton.

Iran is a tempting target and many must be salivating at the thought of reconstructing. They stand to lose enormously if Obama wins - supporting McCain is now a matter of national priority.

Congratulation to the liberal media...their mission is almost complete! If this guy wants to be the leader of the free world....maybe the media should challenge him with a few tough questions "before" he stumbles into the White House!!!!! Wise up folks...he is not a leader..he is a follower!!! And who will he follow?....Moveon.org, code pink, Hollywood, bluedog Dems etc.....

Corrected version. Sent the first draft in error.

If polls ran true John Kerry would be in his second term, George Bush SR would have retired in 1988 and Al Gore would be writing his books in the Oval Office instead of his home. The liberal media wants to ensure that the self proclaimed savior, Roco-Bama, will save America from the evil empire of the Right Wing Zealots. This inexperienced JFK wanna-be has already been crowned the winner by his followers and is now redecorating the White House and hiring P Ditty for his inauguration party. So why have an election?

Liken to Jesus Christ he walks the earth preaching his gospel and will ascend into the Oval Office on judgment day like Chris Angel on 42nd Street performing his supernatural levitation magic to the masses. We continue to hear the predictions every day. Obama will win 26 states, no wait 40 states, now it’s a clean sweep of the whole 48 contiguous with the other 2 a dead heat. Every time I see this hype I want to vomit. If the Democrats are so sure that he’s the chosen then why campaign any longer. Just sit around and we’ll go to the polls in November and crown this arrogant, obnoxious empty suit our new leader. Just say it…President Obama. NOT… come November he’ll get a lesson in humility like JF Kerry did and the rest who enjoyed a comfortable lead the summer before the people spoke. I predict that this flash in the pan will get defeated by at least 5 percentage points as Kerry did and the democratic Congress will demand recounts, investigations and promote their conspiracy theories as they do now wasting our tax dollars and doing absolutely nothing about the issues that they were hired to do when the voters replaced the republican Congress with this bunch of losers.

388 Obama
150 McCain

59 Dem Senators
41 Rep Senators

McConnel, Collins, Stevens & Wicker will be defeated. If Obama takes Georgia, Jones could go down too. While I think it's too early to be certain, I believe that Obama's polling lead will increase significantly after the conventions, which could sweep the Dems to the 60 seat Senate filabuster-proof majority by adding Merkley too.

Really kaye? Looks to me like none of the non-issues you mention have even made a dent in Barack's lead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

But I agree with the cranky tater up top, we haven't even seen the tip of the Rovian snake's head yet. This will get ugly.

kaye,

Here's how your divisive, polarizing machine pol was trending against McCain up until this spring:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

P.S. Red is bad. Right?

Tell us again how Barack can't win without Hillary.

Because of the "Bradley Effect" (aka "Wilder Effect"), we're really going to be flying blind in this election. There's simply no way to know how reliable the polls will be. They're inaccurate even when the race of the candidate isn't an issue - with that variable added I just don't think the polls can be counted upon.

Dear American Voters, reporters, media. professionals, political parties, and our hon. Presidential Nominees,


Subject: Presidential Temperament

Please talk about and "Compare And Contrast" the " Presidential Temperament" of our Presidential presumptive nominees. I will also request and plead to the nominees themselves [ Hon. Senator McCain and Obama ].
Our nation has been applying this yard and stick tor the appointments and confirmation process of our Supreme Court Justices nominees.
Our Greatgrand Nation Foundations are as under:
Family, friends, fellows, faith, funds, fun, with fairness & freedom And without fear, favor, and failure.
It will be disgrace and shameful if the nominees and media will not look into this critical and crucial aspect under current challenging times and circumstances within our country and all around the Globe.

America wake up and the discuss the " Presidential Temperament" of our presumptive presidential nominee's [ Hon. Senator McCain and Obama].

Yours sincerely,
COL. A.M.Khajawall [Ret].
Disabled American Veteran
Forensic psychiatrist, Las Vegas, Nevada

These polls are wrong, America doesn't want a black man to be the next President, we can't have that.
End of story...

I believe Obama will sweep the 57 States he has campaigned in and possibly the 2 he has not yet visited. McCain is actually 102 years of age and is not an American citizen. I follow politics closely and get all my information from CNN and PBS.

Anybody who thinks BHO will ever be president needs to have his/her head examined.Lol.

brig, obama will beat mccain by a minimum of 10 points in nov.

After reading many of these blogs, I can only say...It is Sad that in this century there can be so many racists.......
Real patriotism is not about looking for a leader based on the color of his skin.
It is about finding the person who will look for everyone's interests. Those of us amongst the 62000 who lost their jobs last month (out of 435000 year to date), help us get a grip of the increase in the gas prices (now affecting our elderly parents who can no longer benefits from certin programs because they can't afford more vans to take them to doctor's appointments), no more return of our children being sent to 3rd or 4th tours, and soon our youngsters will be drafted to fight Iran.....You bunch of selfish people didn't you hear the general say the other day that "we are running out of resourcess..we are running thin...no more troops to go anywhere...
I guess most of you in this blog will send their children abroad to avoid the draft under Mc Cain...Or maybe you think you will financially benefit from another senseless war...
At the end, no country has ever survived from this type of situation...As the divide gets bigger between the filthy rich and the poor and poorer...we have to refer to what O'Reilly said the other day on Fox...there will be a revolt as in the French revolution: Let them eat Cake"
Which ones of you are benefitting from the plummeting stock market or from the increasing gas prices...Good luck!
Misogyny + Racism = The End as we know it...

Posted by: crud | July 5, 2008 5:46 PM

No two.

I don't think the "Wilder effect" will be controlling.

Wilder was an OK candidate but Barack is electrifying. How do you discount the "Wilder effect" for that?

Plus there's a perfect storm brewing for the Repuglicans.
In general. No letup in bad economic news.

This is a very different contest from any we have ever had - it is historic. Years from now we are going to look back and say - we actually did it, we seriously considered an African American and voted him in. Our great-great grandchildren will be erecting Obama statues in Central Park, even if he doesn't win, so get over it. Why wouldn't we ... he was excellent. He is excellent. So, we can't say, "following last year's numbers, this indicates..." This is an entirely different place we're in. When it comes down to the final selection, people will vote for Obama to prove to the world that we are leaders in social and economic issues, and that we're not just a nation of war-lovers. Forget Bush's lame claim that he was a uniter and not a divider - pure hogwash. Obama will be a global uniter. (Bush: No, you can't find out what this means in a dictionary) He is of a particular breed and upbringing and education needed to assume this type of post. A flyboy from a U.S. military family doesn't cut it. Wrong time. Wrong place. I know this sounds elitist, but when the most intelligent people are pointing to Obama, the Murdochs and the highest ranking military officials, who are now starting to sound like Obama. PLEASE: Listen to intelligence, to the voices of the university towns and not the cow towns. Who cares what that small town of Findlay, IA thinks - anyone who buys into that much rubbish is not just hyper uneducated, they are verging on winning the title of "special ed" city, USA. To the media: Why are you covering these idiots? They are a national embarrassment believing all that BS. With time, forces will appear and chip away at McCain's claim to be able to lead, and his tenuous position within his own party will be spotlighted again and again. And, most importantly, we will soon find out more about his time in Vietnam. We will be shocked as a nation. I feel sorry for Republicans who will be throwing their money away this election season, and for the power-starved VP, who will go along for the ride. Fellow Democrats, we had an embarrassment of riches this year. Mr and Mrs Repubilcan ...well, meet Bob Barr???

Obama is clearly the best man for the job. A vote for McCain is a vote for his VP. And his VP didn't generate all this excitement, Obama did. No more George Bush. We might as well keep the one we have now. We don't need McCain. Atleast, Bush is funny and entertaining. McCain is dry, dull, and boring, and I can't look at him for 4 years on tv. He puts me to sleep instantly! Obama is the man. Love him!

Obama 08!!!!!!!!!!!!!!